Education · Bankroll management

Manage your bankroll, not just your positions

A bankroll is the risk capital you set aside specifically for prediction markets — separate from savings and bills. Managing it well is what keeps a string of bad outcomes from becoming a real problem.

The idea

Why bankroll matters

Even a well-reasoned position can lose. Bankroll management is the discipline of sizing positions so that variance — the natural ups and downs — never wipes you out.

Dedicated funds

Use only capital you can afford to lose, ring-fenced from essential expenses.

Consistent unit size

Express positions as a small % of the bankroll, not as round cash amounts.

Survive variance

Small units mean a losing streak dents you, it doesn't end you.

No recovering at any cost

A loss is the cost of participating — never a debt to win back with larger positions.

Core rules

A simple framework

01SetFix your bankrollCapital you can lose
02Size1–3% per positionOne unit = 1–3%
03StickKeep units steadyDon't up-size to recover
04ReviewRe-base periodicallyResize as bankroll changes
Worked example

Units in practice

With a 1,000 USDC bankroll and a 2% unit, each position is sized around 20 USDC — regardless of how confident a single market feels.

Bankroll1,000 USDC
Unit size (2%)20 USDC
Typical position1 unit · 20 USDC
High-conviction cap2–3 units · 40–60 USDC
Max single exposure≤ 3% of bankroll
Bankroll management reduces ruin, not risk. It cannot turn a losing approach into a winning one — it only ensures you stay active long enough for your judgment to matter.